[- forecasting methods]
b-5) PROBABILITY-RELATED METHODS (randomness)relevant theories to be included in this group are
- (generalised) method of moments
- bayesian method
- predictive modelling
- method of instrumental variables (IV)
- 2SLS/3SLS
- seemingly unrelated regression
wikipedia.com - "probability is the likelihood or chance that something is the case or that an event will occur"
thus, these methods do not predict future behaviours on the basis of past ones [effects on the dependent variable from variations in the independent one(s)], but the probability of an event [= invariant phenomenom = not describable as a result of the interaction between independent/dependent variables] to occur
trend finding [trendingBot]
- predict definable & more-or-less-certain behaviours
- indicated every time some kind of repetitive character is present
probability
- gives some certainty to randomness
- indicated for undefinable and/or random behaviours
both theories are applicable to different fields - trendinBot can not deal with random behaviours - probability can not understand/describe phenomena, just estimate how likely they would happen under specific conditions
thus and from the point of view of the current clasiffication, neither probability should be included within the forecasting methods or any method defined as such should deal with randomness
trendingBot point of view
trend finding [trendingBot]
- predict definable & more-or-less-certain behaviours
- indicated every time some kind of repetitive character is present
probability
- gives some certainty to randomness
- indicated for undefinable and/or random behaviours
thus and from the point of view of the current clasiffication, neither probability should be included within the forecasting methods or any method defined as such should deal with randomness
